The country’s GDP growth will fall 0.12 percentage point in the current fiscal year coming down to 6.51 percent due to low performance of the agriculture sector and shortage of electricity, projects Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). However, per capita income is expected to increase by a record 10 percent reaching $520 from last year’s $476. BBS has also set its final calculation of GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate in FY2005-06 at 6.63 percent, which was 6.71 percent in its provisional estimate.

According to BBS, the agriculture and forestry sector, which represents 17 percent of the GDP basket, marked a 2.95 percent growth this year, compared to 5.23 percent in FY’06. In FY’05, agriculture production suffered due to floods, but the growth of agriculture production in FY’06 was very high. But since the agriculture production, especially of rice, has been hampered in the current fiscal, the overall agriculture growth might go down compared to the previous fiscal. According to a central bank estimation, aus and amon production in the current fiscal has declined to 1.24 crore tonnes from last year’s 1.25 crore tonnes.

Meanwhile, BBS estimates that boro production in the current fiscal is 1.45 crore tonnes, which was 1.39 crore tonnes last year. The estimated boro production might not be achieved due to a problem of sterility in paddies.

The manufacturing sector performed well, which is evident from the import volume of capital machinery and industrial raw materials. Exports from this sector marked a healthy 20 percent growth this year. The growth of service sector in the current fiscal as the anti-corruption drive by the present caretaker government in the second half of the fiscal year has slowed down economic activities.

BBS PROJECTIONS

According to the BBS provisional estimation, the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 17.79 percent of the GDP, grew 11.19 percent in FY’07, whereas its growth last year was 10.77 percent. Meanwhile, the power sector growth declined to 4.52 percent this fiscal year, compared to last year’s growth of 7.45 percent. The construction sector grew 7.05 percent, compared to last year’s 8.31 percent. The sector constitutes 9.16 percent of the GDP basket.

Fishery, which accounts for 4.73 percent of the GDP, grew 3.99 percent compared to its 3.91 percent growth in FY’06, the bureau reckons. The transport, storage and communications sector, which makes up 10.21 percent of the GDP, grew by 8.24 percent in FY’07 compared to its 7.98 percent growth in FY’06. Wholesale and retail trade representing 14.17 percent of the GDP marked a substantial rise of 7.44 percent in FY’07 compared to last year’s 6.75 percent.

According to the BBS estimation, real estate, renting and business activities have marked a 3.77 percent growth, which was 3.69 percent in FY’06. The sector comprises 7.65 percent of the GDP. Community, social and personal services, representing 7.09 percent of the GDP, grew by 4.51 percent compared to last year/s 4.09 percent growth.

FINAL ESTIMATE OF FY’06 GDP GROWTH

The final estimate of BBS puts the growth of agriculture and forestry sector in FY2005-06 at 5.23 percent, which in its provisional estimation was 4.67 percent.

In FY’06, growth in manufacturing had been set at 8.73 percent as a provisional estimation, but it ended up growing 9.23 percent. BBS estimated construction sector growth at 8.37 percent in FY’06, but it accomplished 8.31 percent growth. Wholesale and retail growth was projected at 7.26 percent, but it grew by 6.75 percent. BBS sources said the GDP growth in FY’06 was down, mainly due to poor output from the service sector.