‘Risks to the global economy have lessened compared to six months ago but their nature has changed,’ International Monetary Fund chief Rodrigo Rato said on April 9. In a speech Rato also said that rapid progress on reform of IMF members voting rights was unlikely to come at this weekend’s annual spring meeting of the Fund and the World Bank.

He highlighted the fact that world economic growth reached five percent last year but that skittish financial markets shed four percent in value in just a day in February, owing to fears for Chinese share values and US growth. IMF officials, however, believe that the United States will avert recession and soon bounce back from a housing-led slowdown, while the rest of the global economy is in good shape.

On April 11, the IMF publishes its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook report, replete with detailed forecasts for growth among its 185 members. According to a report in the Financial Times Deutschland, the IMF is set to forecast world growth of 4.9 percent this year and 4.8 percent next.

The business newspaper said the IMF report would forecast US growth in 2007 of 2.2 percent and 2.8 percent next year. That would be down from 3.3 percent last year. Ten years after crisis swept through East Asian economies, the IMF is seen as less relevant to fast-emerging powers like China, whose buildup of huge currency reserves has made the country far less reliant on outside help. At annual talks in September, the IMF raised the voting power of China and three other countries South Korea, Mexico and Turkey but it faces disquiet from several European and developing nations about deeper reform.