The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted a 6.6 per cent growth in Bangladesh’s real gross domestic product (GDP) for fiscal 2007 and 6.5 per cent for fiscal 2008. In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on April 11, the IMF also projected a lower inflationary trend for Bangladesh based on the consumer prices. It said that the country’s consumer prices would rise by 6.4 per cent in 2007 against 6.3 per cent in 2006. It will record lower at 5.4 per cent in 2008.

Emerging Asian economies, driven mainly by China and India, will expand at a brisk but slightly lower pace during 2007 as US influence declines, the International Monetary Fund said on April 11. The region will see 8.4 per cent growth, down marginally on last year’s 8.9 per cent, because a sharper than expected slowdown in the United States is set to have only a muted effect, the IMF said in its latest global report.

‘Regional economies have less direct exposure to the United States than at the beginning of the decade, while their exposure to China has grown,’ the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report. It pointed out that in the period from 2000 to 2005, exports to China as a percentage of all exports had grown for all countries, in some cases sharply. ‘Real (economic) growth is expected to ease this year and next, but remains at a high level,’ said the report, issued shortly before the 10th anniversary of a financial crisis that shook the region. ‘This reflects some moderation in growth in China and India in response to policy tightening.’

China’s economy, the world’s fourth-largest, is expected to grow 10 per cent in 2007 and 9.5 per cent in 2008, down from 10.7 per cent in 2006, according to the report. India meanwhile is forecast to expand by 8.4 per cent this year and by 7.8 per cent in 2008, down from 9.2 per cent in 2006, the IMF said, while cautioning that the rising Asian powers could again perform better than expected. ‘China and India have continued to outperform expectations,’ it noted. ‘A similar pattern could recur in 200.’

‘In contrast the global demand for electronic goods, which is important for regional exports has remained generally well supported despite some moderation toward late 2006,’ it added. ‘The importance of the United States as a destination for exports has been declining in most countries — with the important exception of China – and the role of intraregional trade has been rising.’

Indonesia, the region’s third-most populous country, was likely to see growth pick up from 5.5 per cent last year to 6.0 per cent this year, the IMF said. An important factor for that was a strengthening in domestic demand spurred by interest-rate cuts, it said. Other Southeast Asian economies would mostly see marginally slower growth, with Thailand’s economy expanding 4.5 per cent this year from 5.0 per cent last year, and Singapore’s growth down more steeply from 7.9 to 5.5 percent.